Comments on: Adventures in probability http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/ in stereo where available Sun, 05 Feb 2012 19:56:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: John Rekenthaler http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/comment-page-1/#comment-2439 John Rekenthaler Thu, 15 Apr 2010 21:51:30 +0000 http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/?p=2632#comment-2439 Hmmm, usually you glide quickly through material that I need to think about a bit, but this lottery item was pretty straightforward. The "figure out the odds that this would happen twice" question is very straightforward: assume that it happened once, and then figure out the odds that it happens once. But I suppose you're correct in your presupposition that people struggle to get this. It ain't all that uncommon to roll a 12 if the first die is a 6! Hmmm, usually you glide quickly through material that I need to think about a bit, but this lottery item was pretty straightforward. The "figure out the odds that this would happen twice" question is very straightforward: assume that it happened once, and then figure out the odds that it happens once. But I suppose you're correct in your presupposition that people struggle to get this.

It ain't all that uncommon to roll a 12 if the first die is a 6!

]]> By: Alex Ivanov http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/comment-page-1/#comment-1445 Alex Ivanov Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:48:08 +0000 http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/?p=2632#comment-1445 Dude, thanks for writing this article, you confirmed my sanity. I'm from Bulgaria, living in the US, and my gf told me about the lottery coincidence(or not?:) today. When I googled "Bulgarian lottery", most of the articles pointed to a BBC story as their source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8259801.stm). It stated that the chance is 1 in 4 million. Knowing the BG lottery system, I used my dormant knowledge in probability and got the same answer as you, 1 in 5,245,786. A Popular Mechanics article also claimed the probability was 1 in 42 million (attention to detail?). At this point I was like wtf?! and googled "Bulgarian lottery odds wrong" and that brought me here. Ironically, you never said anything like "the published Bulgarian lottery odds are wrong" but google still found your site (now, what are the odds of that ;)? Thanks again, dude. Dude, thanks for writing this article, you confirmed my sanity.

I'm from Bulgaria, living in the US, and my gf told me about the lottery coincidence(or not?:) today. When I googled "Bulgarian lottery", most of the articles pointed to a BBC story as their source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8259801.stm). It stated that the chance is 1 in 4 million. Knowing the BG lottery system, I used my dormant knowledge in probability and got the same answer as you, 1 in 5,245,786. A Popular Mechanics article also claimed the probability was 1 in 42 million (attention to detail?). At this point I was like wtf?! and googled "Bulgarian lottery odds wrong" and that brought me here. Ironically, you never said anything like "the published Bulgarian lottery odds are wrong" but google still found your site (now, what are the odds of that ;) ?

Thanks again, dude.

]]> By: Lottery math is not so easy at This is the Green Room http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/comment-page-1/#comment-1407 Lottery math is not so easy at This is the Green Room Wed, 23 Sep 2009 23:38:09 +0000 http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/?p=2632#comment-1407 [...] Guy blog, inspired of course by the recent consecutive draws in the Bulgarian lottery. Addressing my recent confusion, he sheds a little light on why likelihood estimates varied so much: The probability of [...] [...] Guy blog, inspired of course by the recent consecutive draws in the Bulgarian lottery. Addressing my recent confusion, he sheds a little light on why likelihood estimates varied so much: The probability of [...]

]]> By: sachinag (Sachin Agarwal) http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/comment-page-1/#comment-1413 sachinag (Sachin Agarwal) Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:18:01 +0000 http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/?p=2632#comment-1413 This teaches combinatorics and probability in a wonderful, concrete example: http://tinyurl.com/l9vx5d [HT <a rel="nofollow" href="http://twitter.com/rortybomb">@rortybomb</a>] This teaches combinatorics and probability in a wonderful, concrete example: http://tinyurl.com/l9vx5d [HT @rortybomb]

]]> By: rortybomb (Mike) http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/2009/adventures-in-probability/comment-page-1/#comment-1414 rortybomb (Mike) Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:13:30 +0000 http://www.thisisthegreenroom.com/?p=2632#comment-1414 I can't describe to you how much I love combinatorics. Math-ing up the twin Bulgarian lottery picks http://tinyurl.com/l9vx5d I can't describe to you how much I love combinatorics. Math-ing up the twin Bulgarian lottery picks http://tinyurl.com/l9vx5d

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