Responding to Steve Job's first public shot in the Flash Wars (apart from the whole not-including-Flash-in-his-mobile-empire thing), Adobe is running a direct set of ads on major sites like the NYT. The campaign pairs a somewhat surprising banner:
With a more direct sidebar ad:
I predict that within a year, HTML5/Java editing tools will be sufficiently advanced that Flash will seem antiquated in comparison (you run content in a box? you can't copy text?). As of now, the only compelling argument in favor of creating content with Flash is that there isn't an easy development studio for HTML5. So what if "90% of the web uses Flash?" When was the last time entrenchment was a valid argument for internet consumption? Moreover, when YouTube finishes their HTML5 conversion (already well underway), that number drops precipitously - and the countless other sites that have or are converting will drop the percentage of Flash-only content to the single digits. It's only a matter of a software developer stepping up to meet the obvious demand for an alternative creative platform.
Adobe may have a point in their complaint with Apple blocking apps built with their compiling application -- I don't know enough to speak comfortably there -- but ultimately it is Apple's private OS and they can do what they want. To the extent they mess up, someone else will steal their market share. It happened with Windows and it could happen with Android.
With regard to Flash, however, I think the market has spoken - and it wants out.