Thanks, xkcd:
As of this writing, the only thing that's 'razor-thin' or 'too close to call' is the gap between the consensus poll forecast and the result.
To surprise of pundits...
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I think Nate Silver is awesome. But, in reality, if one had simply taken the mean of recent polls in the swing states, one would have done nearly as well as Nate did, if not exactly as well.
This isn’t a dig against Nate, it’s a dig against so many of the “professionals” who presented awful, awful predictions to the public (and got paid to do so).
Well put — I think what makes Nate’s accomplishment so interesting (to me, at least) isn’t any use of incredibly sophisticated math; it’s simply that he allowed the data to speak for itself.