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UCF cheating scandal

November 18, 2010

A major cheating scandal at UCF was discovered - and resolved - through a relatively simple statistical analysis of midterm results. The team was able to identify students who cheated on their midterm exam with high confidence. Professor Richard Quinn's announcement of those findings was captured in this video of his lecture: (Via The Daily […]

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Risk & risk management

June 30, 2010

An overview of financial risk and the risk management process.

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CNBC thinks Taleb is a bad trader

June 17, 2009

More on Taleb: CNBC is running a piece called "Swan Song: Why Nassim Taleb is Still Wrong." The crux of the argument seems to be this paragraph: Arguing against Taleb is a little embarrassing; who among us wants to side with the plodders when for the price of a paperback you can join the elect? […]

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Truth in advertising?

June 15, 2009

I find this graph very interesting, not just because of any implied political statements, but for how it highlights the absurdity of economic forecasting and the potentially misguided trust we place in such numbers. The blue lines were circulated by Obama's economic team when they were pitching the stimulus bill in order to illustrate its […]

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Irrational exuberance here we come! ...again.

June 6, 2009

Only Techcrunch would be so bold as to take three datapoints, all from large firms (read: outliers) and two of which are stale, and extrapolate the entire social network value distribution. From a relative standpoint it may be interesting for ranking, but I wouldn't put any stock in the actual numbers. Modeling The True Value […]

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May 30, 2009

Via TangYauHoong.

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Monte Carlo: house of cards?

May 8, 2009

The WSJ recently ran apiece on Monte Carlo risk management: Here is how a typical Monte Carlo retirement-planning tool might work: The user enters information about his age, earnings, assets, retirement-plan contributions, investment mix and other details. The calculator crunches the numbers on hundreds or thousands of potential market scenarios, guided by assumptions about inflation, […]

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Thoughts on risk management

April 20, 2009

Naked capitalism put out an open call for thoughts on the state of risk management on trading desks. The comments are well worth a curious read (how many times have you said that about a blog post?). It is interesting that when you get enough academics and practitioners shouting in a room, risk management becomes […]

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