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Nature of the Ponzi

May 13, 2009

The front page of the NYTimes today reported "Billions Withdrawn Before Madoff Arrest." This is an expected development. A Ponzi scheme can run indefinately until large sums of money are redeemed, at which point it collapses. Barring a change of heart, these billions of withdrawals represented an immediate and necessary precursor to Madoff's downfall.

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The graph is half full

March 31, 2009

The Big Picture has a post which borrows two graphs from Credit Suisse that are meant to illustrate the performance of the S&P 500 in the 100 days following a "major trough."  I re-borrow them here: It looks like the top graph represents a collection of bear market bottoms, which are easily identifiable by the […]

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