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obama

364 days ago?

November 4, 2009 in News, Politics

In a cab last night, I heard a radio station broadcast a medly of “Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States” calls, followed by a heavily caffeinated announcing repeatedly that it has been one year since Obama was elected and soliciting comments from his audience.

Yesterday was November 3. Obama was elected on November 4.

I don’t think that Election Day qualifies as a floating holiday in the same way that Thanksgiving or Columbus Day do. T-shirts from last year rarely displayed “Election Day 2008″ – instead, they grounded their message with a real date: November 4, 2008. Somehow the claim that the election was “one year ago” doesn’t sit right with me. I guess the real question is when do the Obamas toast the anniversary of their victory – did they do it last night or will they wait for tonight? I know it’s the latter, but my radio station would obviously fall behind the rest with stale reports on things nobody cares about anymore because another media outlet had an excuse to broadcast it earlier.

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As much as I agree with Maureen Dowd’s latest opinion (shocking, yes), this drives me crazy:

If W. had gone to Dover in the middle of the night to salute the war dead, Limbaugh and Liz Cheney would have been gushing about his patriotism.

But since it’s Obama who at last showed up there to see the brutal cost of war, they simply have to dismiss the moving moment as a publicity stunt.

This sort of statement seems the lynchpin of modern political debate, and it’s a travesty. It’s a conditional conjecture disguised as fact, and highlighted by comparison to an opposite set of circumstances. Bush did not go to Dover, and even if he had we do not know what Limbaugh and Liz would have said. It is ludicrous to use this as evidence for an argument.

It would be different if Dowd compared Obama’s Dover trip to an actual trip that Bush made under similar circumstances, and illustrated the difference in Limbaugh’s response then and now; that would be a real comparison, and she does come closer to that ideal in a later paragraph. This excerpt, however, is purely speculative (or at least, unsupported in her opinion).

I hoped we were past the point where a colloquial call to induction like “you know if the situation were reversed he would have said so and so…” would not be considered appropriate evidence for a formal argument. (Even though I think she’s right.)

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From the LA Times, a remarkable transformation is taking place:

And as hard-liners repeated their signature cries of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” Mousavi supporters overwhelmed them with chants of “Death to Russia” and “Death to China,” referring to the two U.N. Security Council members that have shielded Iran from much tougher sanctions over its nuclear program.

See also: this and this. (Don’t you hate when people do that? The links are a video of the “death to Russia” chant and a blogged eyewitness account, respectively.)

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Who knew the little guy was so prolific? A very funny read in today’s NYT:

As we head into the second hundred days of my administration, I feel more pride and pleasure than ever at the prospect of serving the American people and finding ways to make this nation, and this planet, a better place for our children and our children’s children. I am speaking metaphorically here, of course, as I am neutered.

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The First Nerd

June 22, 2009 in Technology

At the recent Radio and TV Correspondents’ Dinner, John Hodgman (you know him – he’s a PC) followed Obama’s humorous address with one of his own, delivering one of the funniest speeches I’ve had the pleasure of watching this year.

Hodgman immediately identifies Obama as “the first nerd president of the modern era” and proceeds to investigate the claim with enthusiasm.

It is simply brilliant comedy, and even Obama can not maintain his “Spock-ish calm.”

YouTube Preview Image

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David Brooks has an op-ed tracking the hypothetical lifecycle of Obama’s healthcare plan which I found entertaining because I was sure he was being sarcastic. How could I not, with choice bits like this:

You are daunted by the challenges in front of you until you remember that by some great act of fortune, you happen to be Barack Obama. This calms you down. You conceive a strategy.

But it doesn’t go quite as planned:

But you won’t be able to honestly address the toughest issues and still hold your coalition. You won’t get the kind of structural change that will bring down costs long-term. In the scrum, Congress will embrace the easy stuff and bury the hard stuff.

Which is why you have MedPAC. That’s the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission that you want to turn into a health care Federal Reserve Board — an aloof technocratic body of experts that will make tough decisions beyond the reach of politics. You can take every thorny issue, throw it to MedPac and consider it solved.

In the end it turns out Brooks isn’t being sarcastic at all; he views this outcome as a success. After all, the Fed has done such a great job, it would be foolish not to establish another one!

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Truth in advertising?

June 15, 2009 in Economics

I find this graph very interesting, not just because of any implied political statements, but for how it highlights the absurdity of economic forecasting and the potentially misguided trust we place in such numbers.

The blue lines were circulated by Obama’s economic team when they were pitching the stimulus bill in order to illustrate its beneficial impact on national unemployment. The red line is the realized unemployment rate to date.

There are two ways to read it, depending on your objective:

  1. Obama’s economic team was overly optimistic, underestimated the severity of the crisis, and the stimulus plan has failed to help as advertised.
  2. Obama’s economic team was overly optimistic, underestimated the severity of the crisis, but things would have been much worse without the stimulus.

Ultimately, the question is whether the level or the shape of the graph is more important. Personally, I find it surprising that (as with the bank stress tests), a situation which was markedly better than a worst case scenario was used to demonstrate the effects of the stimulus. Nonetheless, the fact that this graph was used for demonstration purposes makes it difficult to fault simply because it was plotted 1% too low.

Perhaps it never should have been circulated in the first place. This raises a very touchy point in forecasting: an expectation is almost never perfectly realized. Unless an audience comprehends that fact, then putting a forecast out there can only lead to critique. In a simple example, if I calculate a distribution of outcomes and know it to be the correct distribution with high certainty, then my forecast will be the mean or expected value. But what are the chances that the mean is actually the realized outcome? To be sure, higher than any other single observation, but relatively small nonetheless. This speaks to the importance of confidence intervals and margins of error; my guess, however, is that the margins of error on this graph (however that might be measured) would have included the “improvement” line, making the difference not statistically significant.

More pointedly, however, the stimulus was supposed to “save or create” 4mm jobs. This means that the area between the two curves equals 4mm, but the implied difference here seems much larger to me.

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Guess who’s back?

June 10, 2009 in Politics

Reverend Wright has resurfaced, and here’s what he has to say about Obama:

“Them Jews aren’t going to let him talk to me. I told my baby daughter, that he’ll talk to me in five years when he’s a lame duck, or in eight years when he’s out of office.”

I’m speechless…

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Keep those soles down!

June 10, 2009 in Politics

When I first saw this picture, I thought Obama’s media team must have fallen asleep at their otherwise pristine desks, or resigned:

The image shows the President speaking on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And yes, those are the President’s shoes in the picture.

I’m astounded. Showing the soles of one’s shoes is among the worst insults of the Arab world. There is no excuse for not knowing that. Six months ago, an Irqui reporter threw his shoes at then-President Bush and the event (as well as its cultural ramifications) was seared into the American conscience. Yet here, the White House has chosen to release a photo of the President speaking to the Israeli PM (not exactly loved in the Arab world) while displaying his shoe soles??

But that’s not all — Israelis are feeling angry and insulted as well! The stated reason is that after all their time in the Middle East, Israelis have adopted the shoe sole taboo as their own, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the resposnse is much more pragmatic: the Israelis are afraid that this image will lead to some sort of retaliation, as if they were the people foolish enough to release it.

Maybe for an encore they’ll fly near some Manhattan skyscrapers in Air Force One.

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A new Rasmussen survey finds that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats in 6 out of 10 examined issues, with Republicans being favored on the issue most on voters’ minds – the economy – 45% to 39%. It’s the first time in two years that Republicans have been favored on the economy.

This comes despite another Rasmussen survey from last week showing that 62% of voters blame Bush and not Obama for the economy’s ails.

And all of this in light of a recent Gallup survey which shows that a whopping 25% of people think the GOP is “unfavorable.”

What do we learn? Absolutely nothing, especially from polls with sampling errors of 3% either way.

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Bankruptcy law is such a nuisance

June 8, 2009

The White House tried to block the Indiana pension funds’ appeal of the Chrysler sale from ever reaching the Supreme Court. U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan argued that the funds lack the standing to make their appeal, and that not only should their claims be dimsissed, but the Supreme Court does not even have the ability [...]

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The Inviolate Principle…?

May 29, 2009

Those naive financial journalists at The Atlantic are back! Andrew Gelman pointed me toward this misguided look at the latest auto bankruptcy (you know the one I mean). Key quote:
Purists — and virtually every academic economist one happens to encounter — wonder what happened to the once inviolate principle of rewarding risk-takers.

You’ll have to excuse [...]

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First 100 days (of the stimulus bill)

May 28, 2009

The White House is praising the stimulus bill, saying that it has created 150,000 jobs in its first 100 days.
Unfortunately, in the last 100 days 9,000,000 people filed jobless claims for the first time.  Thus, the stimulus bill has offset less than 2% of the jobs lost, or – to spin it positively – has [...]

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Credit cards and loaded guns: another day in politics

May 21, 2009

I think I’ve seen something like this on late night TV: Congress has a new bill which overhauls credit card regulations… and they’re throwing in relaxed gun control, absolutely free (but only if Obama signs right now)!
Indeed, the latest fiasco out of Washington is a rushed so-called consumer protection plan, which has a second provision [...]

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And on the 73rd day I will rest

May 11, 2009

Obama the comedian at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner:

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Where green shoots come from

April 17, 2009
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Presidents vs Pirates

April 15, 2009

Two excellent graphs making the rounds – the first showing Obama the Pirate-Slayer:

And the second with historical context (that being the First and Second Barbary Wars):

 

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Worst Weekend: Roundup

March 23, 2009

Unusually, the NYTimes published three opinions this weekend which all slammed Obama – from authors who usually gush about the administration. I don’t back off my own opinion that the Times editorial writers are a bunch of pseudo-populist fair-weather fans, but as usual they manage some salient points in their rants:
Let’s kick it off with [...]

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Krugman vs Mankiw… again

March 11, 2009

They’re still at it!  Mankiw explains on his blog (provacatively titled “Wanna bet some of that Nobel money?“):
Paul Krugman suggests that my skepticism about the administration’s growth forecast over the next few years is somehow “evil.” Well, Paul, if you are so confident in this forecast, would you like to place a wager on it and take advantage of [...]

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Product placement

March 9, 2009

The Times has written a piece on David Axelrod, senior advisor to President Obama.  And what’s that in the background of the leading picture?  It’s an Obama campaign poster, in Hebrew.  Because campaigning never ends.

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Maybe they don’t get it

March 4, 2009

Thomas Friedman’s opinion in today’s NYTimes (Obama’s Ball and Chain) contains the following two paragraphs:
I’m worried. We’ve just elected a talented young president with many good instincts about how to propel our country forward, extend health care to more people, make our tax code fairer and launch a green industrial revolution. But do you know [...]

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The Credit Fairy

March 3, 2009

This ad played ahead of the Japanese Office clip below, and during the whole thing I was waiting for Obama to pop out and yell “I’m the credit fairy!”

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The most irresponsible thing Obama has said

March 3, 2009

The headlines today said it all: Obama: Buy stocks now. The full statement is this:
What you’re seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it.
Is he out of his mind? This is perhaps the [...]

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A sense of despair

February 27, 2009

For once, I agree with Paul Krugman when he writes:
There’s so much to like about where Obama is going — health care, transparency in government, ending the war in Iraq. And the stimulus bill is OK, though not big enough.
But on the question of fixing the banks, many of us are feeling a growing sense [...]

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More homes!

February 24, 2009

Excerpt from Obama’s speech to Congress:
That’s what this is about. It’s not about helping banks – it’s about helping people. Because when credit is available again, that young family can finally buy a new home. And then some company will hire workers to build it. And then those workers will have money to spend, [...]

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About those things I said before…

February 24, 2009

Does it strike anyone else as odd that the same greedy, irresponsible, “shameful” people who got us into this mess are the same ones Obama is relying on to get us out?  They may call it “private money” but the reality is that taxpayers are going to subsidize loans allowing Wall Street et al. to [...]

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Commerce Curse?

February 12, 2009

Two gone: Gregg Ends Bid for Commerce Job, Citing Conflicts.
And even Huff is raising doubts: Judd Gregg Withdrawal Sparks New Vetting Concerns.

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Something about a pot and a kettle

February 12, 2009

In his confirmation hearing (pdf link), Tim Geithner made the bizarre and potentially embarrasing statement:
President Obama – backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists – believes that China is manipulating its currency. President Obama has pledged as President to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in China’s currency practice.
Yesterday, citing [...]

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Thoughts on Obama’s first primetime press conference

February 9, 2009

Remember this, the controversial “3am phone call” ad?

How about this response?

Last Thursday, President Obama wrote an opinion for the Washington Post which contained the following paragraph:
And if nothing is done, this recession might linger for years. Our economy will lose 5 million more jobs. Unemployment will approach double digits. Our nation will sink deeper into [...]

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