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Suspicious poll distributions

September 25, 2009

I've covered Benford's method for first-digit fraud analysis before, and now Nate Silver has applied a similar method to polling results. He looked at the last digit of various polls (i.e. a 48% McCain, 49% Obama, 3% undecided poll would be recorded as an 8 and a 9) and compiled histograms of their frequencies. Following […]

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Republicans are/are not resurgent

June 10, 2009

A new Rasmussen survey finds that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats in 6 out of 10 examined issues, with Republicans being favored on the issue most on voters' minds - the economy - 45% to 39%. It's the first time in two years that Republicans have been favored on the economy. This comes despite another […]

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