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What's a 4?

September 19, 2011

I'm starting to feel this way sometimes.

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He clearly didn't give it 110%

November 17, 2009

Silicon Alley Insider is running a series of posts called "15 _______ questions that will make you feel stupid." The blank has been filled twice with "Google interview" and most recently with "management consultant interview."  I particularly enjoyed one of the Google questions: If the probability of observing a car in 30 minutes on a […]

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Living in a Bayesian world

October 30, 2009

Increasingly, I've noted in my discussions with statisticians and practitioners a reliance on Bayesian methods. Bayesian statistics rely on an understanding of the uncertainty of a hypothesis. For example, Bayesian hypotheses are literally updated as new information becomes available. Bayesian analyses will also rely heavily on conditional probabilities, or the understanding of likelihoods that depend […]

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Lottery math is not so easy

September 23, 2009

Carl Bialik has written about lottery coincidences in his WSJ print column and on The Numbers Guy blog, inspired of course by the recent consecutive draws in the Bulgarian lottery. Addressing my recent confusion, he sheds a little light on why likelihood estimates varied so much: The probability of Bulgaria's repeated winning numbers became a […]

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Adventures in probability

September 17, 2009

Calculating the probability of the Bulgarian lottery drawing the exact same numbers in consecutive weeks.

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When worlds collide

June 17, 2009

I just learned from Andrew Gelman that Mandelbrot wrote a paper on taxonomies... in 1955.

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A Derivation of Benford's Law or: Roll Your Own Fraud Detector

May 1, 2009

An explanation of Benford's law, which describes how frequently certain first digits should appear.

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All the news that's fit to calculate (and brought to you by The Clash)

April 14, 2008

Explaining the Monty Hall problem.

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