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Evaluating returns to social media

July 21, 2009

A collusion by wetpaint and the Altimeter Group has resulted in a fanciful study on social media. Normally, a paper like this wouldn't be worth addressing, but the amount of attention being paid to its questionable conclusion warrants a closer look. And that conclusion is: [T]his landmark study has found that the most valuable brands in […]

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Random forecasts (with echoes!)

June 15, 2009

And speaking of forecasts, I'm reminded today of one of my favorite forecasting errors: the echo. This morning, the manufacturing survey missed the forecasted amount, and many pundits commented that it contributed heavily to the market's fall. Here is a plot of the manufacturing survey level as reported each month in red (prior to any […]

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LARS and the lasso

May 28, 2009

I just came across a paper on LARS, the linear model selection algorithm that's sweeping the nation. The mathematically and/or masochistically inclined may view it here.* Ok, so it's not quite that popular, but it is being heralded as one of the biggest advances in linear modelling in a few decades - and that's saying a […]

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F-tests begone!

May 18, 2009

Andrew Gelman just wrote a blog post regarding interaction terms in multiple regression and concludes: You never have to do an F test. Just forget about that stuff! I find it incredibly refreshing when someone (a professor, no less!) is willing to cut through the math and get down to common sense. And I particularly hate […]

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