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QOTD: hindsight edition

July 10, 2011

Kaiser Fung writes on uncertainty and thinking probabilistically about events that have already transpired. The full post is worth a read, but this line sticks out for me: The fact that you won the lottery does not change the fact that economically, it was silly to play the lottery in the first place. This fallacy pops […]

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Something doesn't add up at the PEC

May 1, 2009

AK points out a story from our favorite financial journalist, Jeff Goldberg, regarding the Palestinian Electric Company's surprising 2008 profit of $6mm.  What Goldberg fails to note (citing instead a quote on nebulous "corruption") is that the PEC is paid an unconditional annual fee of $29mm by the Palestinian Authority, meaning they actually hemorrhaged $23mm. […]

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